1998, 1999, and 2000 Wide AM Cents

[Dick]

john, If there are a million of them still out there, then someone is sitting on them, and soesn't even realize the worth, (that is, until a rock falls on his head, and he checks)! Then if he is smart enough to keep them "Stashed", then we will keep looking for them. "'Tis the thrill of the hunt", that makes for a nice search! who knows? Maybe I will have one in one of the three boxes I got from "back east"!
Welcome to the crowd!
Dick

[gription]

[doubledguy]

Hi Dick,

It is too early to actually say how many of the 1992-P or 1992-D Close AM varieties really are out there. The number "one million" simply represents the average die life for a Lincoln cent die that is used to make circulation strikes.

The same statement could be said about the die that produced the 1969-S Lincoln cent doubled dies. Normal die life would be about a million coins, however, in this case time has shown that only a couple dozen at most are known to exist. Mint employees probably spotted the doubling on that one and removed it from the coining press before many got out.

The 1970-S Lincoln cent doubled die is another. All specimens that I have seen, or have seen pictured, show a die crack from the mint mark through the date. A normal die run should have produced about a million of these yet again, only about a dozen or so are known to exist. I suspect that for this one the die crack caused the die to fail after only a few were struck and we will never find very many more of them.

The 92 P & D Close AM varieties are just too new of a find and there hasn't been the vast amount of searching for these like there has been for the above mentioned doubled dies. They may down the road prove to be just as rare as those doubled dies but that would surprise me. If only one die of each was used, they will be very, very scarce despite the projected "one million" estimated mintage. Just look at the total mintages for the 92-P and 92-D cents.

Would I spend $2,000 for one of these right now? No. I personally would want to wait and do more searching. The 1998-S and 1999-S Close AM proof cents have a chance to be a lot rarer than the 92-P and 92-D. In the case of proof dies, only 3,000 coins are struck before the dies are retired from use. That means they are most likely going to be incredibly rare and more likely to be worth that $2,000 investment.

As for which Memorials do I see as having the greatest potential, I would say that a collection containing the 1969-S Die #1 doubled die, the 1970-S Die #1 doubled die, the 1971-S Proof Die #1 and Die #2 doubled dies, and the 1998-S Proof Close AM and the 1999-S Proof Close AM Lincoln cents would be my dream collection at this point.

John

[gription]

in 3 years+ of constant ebay combing i've seen one 70S ddo for sale. it was a somewhat damaged VF/XF.. located in Brasil. sold for around $450.

at the time, the cherrypicker's guide didn't go into detail as to how rare the coin was so i didn't bid too strong. now that i know i really kick myself for not snatching it up. but i do take a close look at every single 70S i see.. maybe someday



anyway.. your reply has provoked a good amount of thought for me. your logic with the 70S ddo (how there should be a million, but.. something must've happened) would obviously also apply to the 69S.. and maybe the 92D? and the 99 wide am.. right? (and the '72, 83, 84, etc etc)

i'm mostly with you on the 92 am's.. probably just not enough people looking. but if there were 'a million' wouldn't more than 15 be reported by now?

the 95D ddo is up there too, but 'there should be a million' so i'm confused i guess.

i can see how proof varieties would be limited.. since they only make about 3000 with each die. but now you're making me think that every MS variety *should* have tons of examples.. simply because of the die runs

i know i'm coming off as naive, or uneducated.. mostly because i am as far as the whole process goes, so i apologize... it's just that i've never thought of it like this. like how you talk about the 99 close am in the other thread.. if you spot another die, the number multiplies. makes sense.

not sure if this is a question at all.. maybe i'm just thinking outloud... thanks for showing up.. you should stick around.

[doubledguy]

You don't come off sounding uneduacted or naive. You come off sounding like someone who wants to learn and in my book that's a good thing! There's a lot of power in knowledge. That's what the fine art of cherrypicking is all about. The knowledge that you have or gain about varieties allows you to purchase great varieties at coin shows for the cost of a "regular" coin. It's your knowledge about varieties that gives you that edge.

Since the 1995-D DDO was discovered well after the big find for the 1995 P-Mint coins, chances are good that Mint inspectors at both Mints were looking at the dies and coins a lot more closely. The 95-D DDO may have been spotted early in the die run and the die pulled from service before running a full die life.

With that variety the other thing that factors in is the fact that the 95-D to this date has not received anywhere near the publicity as the Die #1 95-P. How many 95-D mint-sewn bags and bank-wrapped rolls are still out there waiting to be opened and searched?

As for the 1999 Wide AM cents, there are 4 documented dies known so far. The 1998 Wide AM and the 2000 Wide AM both have at least 16 confirmed dies, so even if all of them ran full die lives, the 1999 will be much scarcer than the 1998 or 2000. I think all three of them are great finds and well worth looking for even though the 1999 is the scarcest of the three. I won't thumb my nose at any of them.

Another subset of varieties for the Lincoln Memorial cents that should be on your list of highly desirable varieties would be the three 1960 proof cent doubled die varieties that have either a Large/Small Date or a Small/Large Date. With our knowledge of the minting process we know that it is highly unlikely that there any more than 3,000 of any one of those varieties since they are proof varieties. That makes them extremely rare. Somehow owning a variety with a mintage of just 3,000 coins has a lot of appeal to me.

As long as I can be of some help, I will stick around.

[Bob P]

John/Billy,
I just got an email from Mr. Cromwell who sent the 1992D close AM to PCGS for authentication. Seems like he didn't have one after all. PCGS said it was a regular business strike coin. I guess it was also pretty worn, which may explain why the A and M seemed so close to him. I wish he had the capability to send a pic so we may have saved him a few bucks. He said he was so embarrassed, but I pretty much said not to be and keep searching! If he knew how many boo-boos I've made...he'd be laughing his butt off

[doubledguy]

Hi Bob,

Thanks for the info. We all make mistakes like that. It's what makes us human.

By the way, just how do you add photos to one of these posts?

John

[gription]

[gription]

[doubledguy]

gription wrote:

"does that mean that there could be up to around 4 million in existence?"

It would suggest that with the 1999 Wide AM that is a possibility, however, there is another influencing factor for the 1999 Wide AM cents.

Two of the 4 confirmed 1999 1c Wide AM dies were first used at the end of 1998 to strike 1998 Wide AM cents. That means that part of their die life was used striking 1998 Wide AM cents and part of their die life was used striking 1999 Wide AM cents. This would drastically cut down on the number of 1999 Wide AM cents struck by those 2 dies and that would of course cut down the total number of 1999 Wide AM cents available.

Based on what I have seen with die markers for those 2 dies, I would estimate that only about 25% of the die life for those two dies went to striking 1999 Wide AM cents. If we can assume that the other two 1999 Wide AM dies ran full die lifes striking 1999 Wide AM coins, it would give us an estimated mintage of 2.5 million 1999 Wide AM coins.

That may sound like a lot, but when you consider that the total mintage for 1999 circulation strike coins was 5,237,600,000 coins, it means that only 1 in every 2,095 cents for 1999 would be a Wide AM.

When you search BU rolls of 1999 cents you are not searching a large cross section of 1999 cents. Rather, you are searching a very, very small cross section. Anyone that has searched BU rolls for varieties knows that there are only a very limited number of dies represented in any given BU roll. You'll find a number of coins from the same dies in each BU roll. That's why if you find one doubled die or RPM in a BU roll, you are likely to find other specimens of the same variety. The same is true if you are searching a $25 box of BU rolls or a mint-sewn bag of 1999 cents. You may be searching a lot of coins, but you are searching only a very small cross section of dies that were used to strike the 1999 Lincoln cents.

One other factor has to be taken into consideration that may contribute to the scarcity of the 1999 Wide AM cents. If two of the 1999 Wide AM dies were first used to strike 1998 Wide AM coins, were the other two 1999 Wide AM dies also used to first strike 1998 Wide AM coins? It is possible that they were and we just haven't seen examples on 1998 coins just yet. That would further cut down on the mintage for 1999 Wide AM coins.

I hope this information is helpful and not too confusing.

John[/b]

[coop]

I have had orginal BU rolls that had just one variety and some that had 19 of the same variety. Just depends on what was put into the roll. I got a bunch of 1960-D rolls that had no varieties in the 15+ rolls I checked and only found one RPM in one roll out of the 15 rolls I opened. If it is there, they are there. Just depends on how many machines were running when your coins were struck.

[doubledguy]

Coop,

You are right. There are so many variables that go into it. It all depends on the type of BU rolls that you get. There is a big difference between original bank-wrapped rolls and BU rolls that dealers put together. In the latter, the coins may have already been searched for varieties.

As of 1998 when I had my last ground floor trip to the Philadelphia Mint, each quad press was dumping its production into a single tote bin. Once filled, several of these tote bins could be taken to the riddlers. The coins would be fed from the tote bins into the riddlers which would hopefully catch the mistruck (mis-shaped) coins. From there they would go to the bagging operation.

A lot has changed since then. I understand the quad presses are now a thing of the past with new high speed presses that use just a single die. Looks like I need to take another trip to Philadelphia one of these days!

John

[coop]

Can you get off from work? LOL

I would like to see some of the images from that trip as well.

[doubledguy]

Hi Coop,

As of January 25, 2008 I am officially retired from teaching. I wouldn't need to get off from work.

John

[Dick]

John, I would love to see the minting process, myself, but I doubt that the day that these tired, and damaged eyes will ever see any "machine shop", again. Having worked as a millwright, I have seen a few. So I will be quite content if I should see a few photos of your next trip thru, just for the fun of it!
Welcome to the "retired" folks group! My thoughts are that you will not be needing the "Old rocking chair", for many years to come. I'm not ready for one, and I retired in '63! Of course I have worked since, but officially, I have not worked at my trade since '81. not to worry, tho, 'cause I'm still a kid at heart!
Dick