Silver close to $41 per oz. !...Silver Thursday Event Point

[Danester]

The Silver/Gold Markets may become like 17th Century Dutch Tulip Bulb Mania. At the peak of Tulip Bulb Mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble.

However, this may be a little different from the 1637 Tulip Bulb crash, and the "Silver Thursday Event" that occurred in the Silver Commodity Markets on Thursday, March 27, 1980, where a steep fall in silver prices led to panic on commodity and futures exchanges. The situation today is, the rise of the Silver Market is not just fueled by speculation, but by debasement of the metal content of our coins and the fact our paper money is no longer back by silver or gold. All this and our Nation's record debt results in the falling value of the US Dollar.

It's likely there won't be a big bubble and resulting crash... but there will be a point where wide swings and volatility set in. I think we are about $10 away - when Silver reaches the magical $50 per oz (the "Silver Thursday Event Point" or STEP).

Anyone care to speculate when we reach "The STEP". My best guess September 21, 2011

[mojaveblue]

Dennis
I know your post is fairly old now, but I didnt see any other comments.
I am no forecaster of the markets, in fact I do badly in stocks/equities. But I have done some reading, I like Franklin Sanders for pro-gold silver commentary, and who seems to be opposite is Jon Nadler on Kitco.
But I have heard and I have planned on the next upswing in silver to be mid to late july of this year. That of course also is supposed to correspond to the low point. From there, due to dollar debasement, and QE2 -3, inflation, the silver-gold market is supposed to be bullish for another 2 - 5 years.
There will be market swings absolutely, I figured based on reading that silver would drop to $35 an ounce, I believe I have seen $28 written, we will see. At that point, the gold to silver ratio could be back up as high as 57 - 63.
Based on fundamentals and buying in India and China, you could be right about a high in late septmeber and a consolidation or reversal, but I am counting on it picking up again very shortly before the next summer sets in.
Your history there is very interesting, about the first bubble.
Im hoping the speculation on silver/gold is based on real expectations and does not represent a bubble.

[Dick]

While I agree with both of you, I am not an investor, nor a 'player of the Stock Market. my Grandfather was, and did a good job of it. But he only invested 1/3 of his net worth in any venture.
Many people saw the rising valuse of the silver, and figured they had better "sell that old silver set", while the price is up. Then the values keep rising, and they say, "Darn, I should have waited"! Others did wait, and in the case of one member of another forum, sold on the day that silver had hit $50/oz. A majority of the most active members are also dealers, and/or, sellers.

My thought in that respect is, if one is going to play that game, remember what you paid for that silver, in the first place, and then consider when to sell, or buy. Use a given percentage up, or dowwn as the buy/sell mark. Then you won't have to say "I should have waited"!

The gold I have was gotten when it was $35.00/oz. I still have it. Same thing with the silver. I still have it, also. Unless one has to sell, to make ends meet, IMHO, it is best to "just sit tight"!
When silver went high, the people sold, right, and left, and in doing so tended to flood the market, dropping the value, (law of supply and demand, at it's best).
I have always said to keep an eye on the silver. it will rise, and one day become very valuable.
16:1 ratio, that might be just a thought, today, but give it time, you will see it.
It could get even closer, too!

[Danester]

One bubble is about to pop... and it isn't silver

Read what SilverSeek.com is saying -

Gold and silver are strange things. They have been used for centuries as money and only in the last 40 years have they been shoved aside by the financial communists - yet they still exist as a free market monetary asset despite the force of all the government's guns.

The strange thing about gold & silver, however, is that while they are the last vestige of a money that is not in and of itself able to be manipulated by the political criminal class, many people still trade instruments in gold and silver which are easily manipulated by the aforementioned - paper future contracts.

........to try to protect ourselves from the collapse of the monetary system by buying instruments (futures contracts)) which are a part & parcel with the current monetary system makes as much sense as buying shares of Enron in late 2001 because you had inside knowledge it was a fraud.

So, what's the first moral of the story? If you are buying gold and silver to distance yourself from the highly manipulated and rapidly failing monetary system, then don't buy gold and silver in forms that are under the control of the central planners..... buy hard gold and silver and hold it yourself.

Read it all in the link below and check-out the charts - Silver is still under priced when you take into account past inflation and devaluation of the dollar.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1305294114.php

The Danester

[mojaveblue]

And I definately agree with both of you, Dick and Dennis.
Dick it is amazing to hear of the former prices prior to the bull run in the metals, my congrats to you for a good steady gaze at the future, it will be in your favor. My boss at work is always telling me to set a price and sell or buy, his is good advice in so far as not letting your decisions be made from emotions. But although, when we first entered the silver bull, (physical metal only) it was about $14 an ounce, and I said to myself it will get to $20, but that wasn't my sell point. I told myself maybe Ill sell at $25 depending on whats going on. Well, all the points have come and gone. But what I have done is traded most of my silver for gold when the ratio was around 33. I was worried about the volatility in the market for silver while seeing evidence that gold was much firmer. There is a chance Ill trade back when the ratio climbs up to near 60, I dont know.
I am a fanatic for all the metals, commodities. Silver mainly though. I have never dealt in futures or ETFs, I am really not that good with numbers. But I have and currently own shares of Silver Wheaton, and Great Panther Silver, both mining stocks.
I am waiting for them to return positive like the physical metals.

Anyway, thanks for the chance to talk about it.

[Dick]

Phil
I am one of those who like to carry my own load, myself. Not paper. The real thing, and I live by the old adage that says , (more or less):

A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush.

Confuscius says: A push in the bush is worth more than two in the hand".