2004 Die Variety Forecast

[coppercoins]

Considering we are just over a week from closing out 2003, I thought it might be fun to forecast what I think will happen with the die variety market over the next year. Of course forecasts are only as good as their source, and with that being said, you can take it for what it's worth - not very much. We can look back at the end of the year to see whether I'm even close.

As for rolls of cents, I forecast seeing some of the issues in the early 50s climb to $100 per roll and more for the first time. BU rolls of cents from the late 30s and early 40s will climb to well over $200 per roll (most are already at least close to that), and the once "common date" rolls that hovered around $2 a roll for many years will finally see $10 per roll. In other words, series wide, I expect to see a 15-20% gain in roll values for BU wheats.

The memorials will also see their own form of windfall this year. The most common dates will all go over $1 a roll, and some of the tougher ones will see a climb comparable to the 15-20% climb forecast for the wheats. This would be 5-10% more than in previous years. Why? A number of reasons:

1. I think people are finally waking up to the idea that cents won't be around in change all that much longer. I foresee the exclusion of the cent in normal production within five years, possibly on the Lincoln cent's 100th birthday. This will generate some new interest in collecting cents and hoarding rolls.

2. The certified and high-grade cent market is blast white hot...issues that had a hard time climbing above the slabbing fee a few years ago are selling for hundreds now. The common dates in the very tough highest grades are now selling for over a thousand each, and the early cents in full red are selling for more than new cars...even some of the more common dates that were obtainable for a couple hundred dollars a few short years ago.

3. People are coming into collecting in droves, probably because of (or at least in part due to) the statehood quarter program. They are picking a series and sticking to it after completing the year's quarters, and like in the past, many of them are picking cents.

With all these things put together, nice, original rolls of Lincolns are drying up faster than ever before - at an alarming rate.

So what about the die varieties? I think the big doubled dies from the 1980s (1980P DDO, 1983P DDR, and the 1984P DDO) will see tremendous increases in value this year - possibly even double in some grades. The 1955 and 1972 doubled die staples will not see as much change, but I foresee their values increasing by as much as 15%.

What will change in die varieties more than anything else is the number of people who stick to Lincolns and decide to specialize in die varieties. This will help the market for all those minor unidentifiable RPMs and doubled dies some of you (and myself) have been saving waiting for the site to list comparable die information - which will also happen this year.

Another change that will help the market? I will be quitting my full-time job this year, and I will be finishing school as well - MUCH more time spent with coins as of the beginning of the summer. If we can get another 2,000-3,000 photos on the site this year, I think it will finally find its break-point to being used more commonly than other attribution systems, which will help the market overall. It will be the first public listing of so many die varieties and photos to go with them, there will be a number of once frustrated die variety novices come back into the market with force. Those of you who have held out over time will finally see the windfall of additional collectors to trade with and sell to.

Over all I believe 2004 will be a very good year for coppercoins and for die variety collectors - it will work like a domino effect - get the site done, get more people interested, and liven up the market that was nearly completely destroyed over time with greed and lackluster publications. That's my prediction, what about yours?

[Bob P]

My forecast is pretty similar to Mr. Chuck's, except I see increasing collectability accross the board. The new nickel, the continuation of the State Quarters program, the scarcity of newer dated varieties, etc. will all come to a head this coming year. The continuation of the upgraded Federal Reserve notes, has the paper money hobby on the rise as the older notes are phased out and replaced.
I also see coppercoins.com having a banner year. New site graphics, more varieties listed and photographed, the store coming on line......I see nothing but good stuff. Let's also consider the prices of precious metals having a great year as well. This sure looks good to me!

Bob P

[GarryN]

I believe that the Lincoln cent series will be in the forefront of collectors minds due to the 100th anniversary of the series in 2009. That will cause an increase in demand for all die varieties. That market will begin to mature in the next few years and prices will increase and stabilize. The major die varieties will probably increase a little. They have already increased over the past few years. I think its interesting that the 1914-D hasnt moved at all in the past 10 years. I can reacll seeing an EF-40 for sale 10 yrs ago for about $450 and it is still in that range. I wonder if that one will begin to move.

The 1909 S VDB on the other hand has moved substantially in the past 10 yrs. I bought an MS62 RB in 1995 for $675 and EF coins are in that range now. I could have upgraded to an MS64RB in 2000 for $1,500 and those are about $2,300 now. The proof cents in the 1936-42 series will probably increase more and all high grade wheats will move up a little. I also agree varieties in the Memorial series will find a market too.

So with the state quarter program moving into the second half of the series and some new nickels coming out, the outlook is good for collectors. Just my 2 CENTS worth!